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BT won
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Phi Edge uses its purpose-built AI prediction models to calculate outcome probabilities ball-by-ball during a match. We don’t take bets ourselves, but we have partnerships with companies that do. Learn more about Phi Edge
St Lucia Kings only reached 138/6, and Barbados Tridents chased those runs down without breaking a sweat. The Tridents struck 7 sixes and 11 fours, with 61.9% of their runs in boundaries, while the Kings managed 4 sixes and 9 fours. That difference in punch decided it, as the Kings really struggled to find the boundary for long spells in the middle overs, and Barbados Tridents seized control to finish the job comfortably.
Rahman ripped through with 3 wickets for 21 and an impact score of 90, while de Kock answered with 46 off 30, scoring the winning runs, and an impact score of 89. Rahman’s recent form had an average impact of 53, and Kock’s 44 was lifted by a standout +45. Between them, Barbados Tridents seized control by striking with the ball and then keeping the chase moving.
Match impact vs recent form
This match score (0-100) vs their recent-form average over the card's look-back window.
Barbados Tridents are chasing 138 at 76/2 in 11 overs, and this switch to Theekshana is built on a clear matchup: de Kock is striking at 115 against him, well below his 141 career batting SR. With the chase still live, St Lucia Kings have a chance to slow the tempo and force Barbados Tridents into a harder finish.
de Kock's strike rate · per 100 balls
Theekshana keeps Kock's batting strike rate below Kock's career mark.
Barbados Tridents are 68/2 after 9 overs, and Clarke’s strike rate of 85 against Chase sits well below his career 106. That slowdown gives St Lucia Kings a timely bowling change, with the Kings needing wickets.
Clarke's strike rate · per 100 balls
Chase keeps Clarke's batting strike rate below Clarke's career mark.
Barbados Tridents are 6/0 after 1 overs, and King’s strike rate of 172 against Theekshana jumps well above his 133 career batting SR. King will be looking for the trend to continue.
King's strike rate · per 100 balls
Theekshana keeps King's batting strike rate below King's career mark.
Chase has brought up 2750 career T20 runs, with 32 runs this match already underlining his value for St Lucia Kings. Now he needs to put his foot down on the accelerator and make sure the Kings post a competitive target.
Mujeeb has kept Chase to a strike rate of 108. That sits well below Chase's career batting strike rate of 124. How Chase handles Mujeeb is a genuine swing point in this fixture.
Chase's strike rate · per 100 balls
Rahman keeps Chase's batting strike rate below Chase's career mark.
Rutherford and Sams give Barbados Tridents real late-innings bite, with strike rates of 195.51 and 182.54 at the death. St Lucia Kings have Seifert setting the tone early at 154.77 in the powerplay, while de Kock’s 170.03 through the middle keeps the pressure on.
Strike rate in standout phase
Standout = best relative rank vs these XIs, not personal peak SR.
Against Motie, Chase’s strike rate sits at 100, well below his 124 career batting SR. That comes over 35 balls, enough to suggest Motie has found a way to slow one of St Lucia Kings’ main scorers. Barbados Tridents will like that kind of control if this matchup lands in a key phase.
Chase's strike rate · per 100 balls
Motie keeps Chase's batting strike rate below Chase's career mark.
Asalanka’s strike rate sits at 117 against Mujeeb, down from a career batting SR of 131. He also got him out when these two sides met earlier in the season. If Mujeeb lands this again, it can blunt one of the Kings' main scoring threats.
Asalanka's strike rate · per 100 balls
Rahman keeps Asalanka's batting strike rate below Asalanka's career mark.
St Lucia Kings have the standout bat in Seifert, whose 367 runs in his last 10 games at 161 and impact score of 95 make him the most obvious threat in this matchup. Barbados Tridents counter with Sams, 14 wickets and an economy of 7.58, while de Kock and Rutherford add 258 and 232 runs at strike rates of 157 and 155.
Recent impact score
Role-specific form score (0-100) over the card's look-back window.
Barbados Tridents have edged St Lucia Kings 14 to 10 across 24 meetings, so this one comes in with little between them. BT also took the last meeting on 2026-08-16, which gives them the slight psychological nod. SLK have enough in the rivalry to make it close, but the numbers point to BT as the side with the recent grip. However, BT have lost their last 4 games and are stuck at the bottom of the table so they are not the same force they have been in the past.
Barbados Tridents finish the last phase at 10.88, well ahead of St Lucia Kings on 9.42, while the early overs are tighter at 7.82 and 7.92. That gap suggests both sides can start steadily, but Barbados Tridents have the better late surge over the last 10 matches. If this goes deep, the death overs may be where the contest opens up.
Runs per over by phase
Powerplay, middle and death scoring rates for each side.
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